NCAAB Model - Donnie Dimes | AI Sports Prediction Lab

SEASON COMPLETE

March 2026

NCAAB V10 (V9.5b)

Combined Gate + Form Layer

The culmination of 10 versions of development. V6 structural filters combined with V7 projected margin analysis, plus a hot/cold form layer using 15-day vs 30-day rolling performance deltas. Walk-forward validated on 2,000+ games with zero lookahead bias.

Combined dual-gate (structural + projected margin) Form layer: 15d vs 30d rolling delta, lambda 0.03 Tournament mode with adjusted thresholds Walk-forward: 58.8% ATS, +12.2% ROI (161-113) Totals model: 60.7% filtered, +15.9% ROI Season record: 25-21, +3.4u

RETIRED

February 25, 2026

NCAAB V9.4

ROG Sweep Optimization

Parameters optimized via 1.87 million combination sweep on ROG machine. Logistic k=0.10, rolling window 45 days, lambda 0.03, HCA 2.5, SOS weight 0.4, min probability 0.70.

1.87M parameter sweep k=0.10, 45d window HCA 2.5, SOS 0.4 Min probability 0.70

RETIRED

February 2026

NCAAB V8.1

Quality Filters

Added quality filters: minimum 2 point edge, minimum 2.0 units, dropped STRUCTURAL-only, CAUTION, and LIGHT picks, same-game deduplication.

Min 2pt edge, min 2.0u Dropped STRUCTURAL-only picks Same-game deduplication Foundation for V9+ refinement

RETIRED

January 2026

NCAAB V7

Projected Margin Model

Score prediction model using Barttorvik efficiency data. Builds a projected margin and measures edge against the closing spread.

Projected margin from efficiency data Barttorvik adj ORtg/DRtg Edge = projected margin vs spread

RETIRED

January 2026

NCAAB V6

Structural Filters

Introduced structural filters to detect market inefficiencies in the spread. The first gate in the eventual dual-gate system.

Structural market inefficiency detection First gate of dual-gate system Spread analysis layer