NHL Model - Donnie Dimes | AI Sports Prediction Lab

National Hockey League MODEL HISTORY

NHL MODEL

Full version history and evolution of the NHL prediction engine. Currently running V1.

Current Version

Total Versions

LIVE

Status

VERSION HISTORY

MODEL EVOLUTION

LIVE

April 19, 2026

NHL V1

XGBoost + LR + Market Ensemble

Full machine learning rebuild from scratch. XGBoost and Logistic Regression ensemble with 60% market weight. Trained on 1,054 games with 20 features including goalie save percentage differential, MoneyPuck expected goals percentage, Corsi percentage, and rolling form stats.

XGBoost + LR + Market ensemble 60% market, 25% XGBoost, 15% LR 20 model features Goalie save percentage differential MoneyPuck xGF% and Corsi% Rolling form stats (5,068 rows) 5% edge threshold Walk-forward: 78.9% in-sample (leakage noted)

RETIRED

March 2026

NHL V3 (Legacy)

Early Moneyline Model

The original NHL model before the full ML rebuild. Basic team stats with a +200 ML cap to avoid long-shot dogs. Live record: 4-2, +15.7u.

Moneyline only +200 ML cap (max odds) Basic team stats Record: 4-2, +15.7u

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OTHER MODEL ENGINES