MLB Model - Donnie Dimes | AI Sports Prediction Lab

LIVE

April 19, 2026

MLB V5.1

XGBoost + LR Ensemble with Weather

Full machine learning rebuild. XGBoost and Logistic Regression ensemble with 58 features including live weather forecasts, ballpark factors, and pitcher matchup intelligence. 75% market weight ensures the model respects sharp closing lines while finding genuine edges.

58 model features Live weather forecasts via Open-Meteo Ballpark factor adjustments Pitcher K/9, BB/9, HR/9 matchup scoring XGBoost + Logistic Regression ensemble 75% market weight, 20% LR, 5% XGBoost Walk-forward validated: 62.5% WR at 5.5% edge threshold

SUPERSEDED

April 19, 2026

MLB V5.0

First ML Ensemble Model

Initial XGBoost + LR ensemble trained on 7,179 games (2023 to 2025). 54 features. Walk-forward backtest: 55.9% win rate, +7.30u, +5.5% ROI across 418 qualifying games.

54 model features Trained on 3 seasons of data First true ML ensemble for MLB Backtest: 33-26 (55.9%), +7.30u

RETIRED

April 13, 2026

MLB V4.5

Pitcher vs. Opponent Matchup Intelligence

Added pitcher matchup scoring layer. K/9, BB/9, HR/9 scored against opponent strikeout rate, walk rate, and home run per game. 2026 blend: 16% weight at 20 games played, scaling to 100% at 100 games.

Pitcher matchup intelligence layer 2026 season blend (16% at 20 GP to 100% at 100 GP) Matchup adjustment cap: plus or minus 12% on projected total Rolling season tally across all MLB versions

RETIRED

April 12, 2026

MLB V4.2

Dynamic Regression + 8% Min Edge

Lowered minimum edge to 8% based on backtest showing the 8 to 10% bucket had the best ROI (+3.1%). Added dynamic regression that fades from 0.80 at season start to 0.20 at 100 games played. MAX_FAV_ML capped at -195.

8% minimum edge (from 10%) Dynamic regression: 0.80 to 0.20 over 100 games 2026 pitcher overlay for pitchers with 4+ IP MAX_FAV_ML: -195

RETIRED

April 10, 2026

MLB V4.0

Full Rebuild: O/U Totals + Bullpen ERA

Major rebuild adding Over/Under totals market, bullpen ERA layer, rolling team stats framework, and ESPN data enrichment. First version to post picks publicly to the Telegram channel.

O/U totals market added Bullpen ERA layer Rolling team stats framework ESPN line movement, injury flags, pitcher ERA fallback First public channel picks 2024 backtest: ML 60.9% / +5.1% ROI, Totals UNDERs 57% / +12% ROI

RETIRED

March 29, 2026

MLB V3.5

Over/Under Model Introduction

First version to include totals (O/U) predictions. Tempo multiplied by efficiency to project run scoring. Added bullpen quality layer.

O/U totals model introduced Tempo x efficiency projection Bullpen quality scoring

RETIRED

March 27, 2026

MLB V2

Original Moneyline Model

The original MLB moneyline model. Basic team stats, pitcher data, and market consensus. Served as the foundation for everything that followed.

Moneyline only Basic pitcher and team stats Market consensus averaging