NBA Model - Donnie Dimes | AI Sports Prediction Lab

LIVE

April 19, 2026

NBA V4

Playoff Projected Margin Model

Built specifically for the 2026 NBA Playoffs. Projected margin model with 70% market weight and 30% model weight. Playoff specific adjustments include reduced pace (96.0), lower home court advantage (+1.5 vs +3.0 regular season), and a scoring factor of 0.965 to account for tighter postseason defense.

Projected margin model 70% market weight, 30% model Playoff pace cap: 96.0 Reduced HCA: +1.5 points Walk-forward: 64-39-2 (62.1%), +56.59u, 20% ROI Optimal threshold: 0.63 probability

RETIRED

April 14, 2026

NBA V3 Play-In

Player Matchup Intelligence

Added player matchup intelligence wired into both ATS and totals evaluators at 15% weight. First version to incorporate individual player impact data.

Player matchup intelligence at 15% weight ESPN API integration for live data Fallback to V2 behavior if API fails

LIVE

April 14, 2026

NBA Totals V2

Playoff Totals Evaluator

Playoff aware totals model with softer pace cap, minimum total 210 (vs 220 regular season), and tighter edge thresholds (4.5 to 15 point range).

Playoff pace adjustment Min total: 210 (playoff) Edge range: 4.5 to 15 points

RETIRED

February 2026

NBA Totals V1

Original Totals Model

The original NBA totals model. Tempo multiplied by efficiency to project game totals. Live record of 20-2 (+41.05u) before being superseded.

Tempo x efficiency projection Live record: 20-2, +41.05u Backtest showed 51% at scale (sample size effect)

RETIRED

February 2026

NBA V2

ATS Spread Model

ATS spread model using rolling efficiency stats from Basketball Reference. Adjusted offensive and defensive ratings with home court advantage.

ATS spreads Rolling efficiency stats Basketball Reference adj ORtg/DRtg Season record: 26-25, -2.06u

RETIRED

January 2026

NBA V1

Original Projected Margin

The first NBA model. Basic projected margin using team efficiency ratings.

Projected margin model Basic efficiency ratings Foundation for V2 and beyond