# Donnie Dimes — llms-full.txt
# Full site documentation for AI/LLM crawlers
# Site: donniedimes.com
# Generated: April 2026

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## SITE OVERVIEW

**Name:** Donnie Dimes
**URL:** https://donniedimes.com
**Type:** AI Sports Prediction Engine
**Delivery:** Telegram channel (https://t.me/+8whV3BXMiMQ3ZWFj)
**Sports:** MLB, NBA, NHL, NCAAB (seasonal)

Donnie Dimes is a machine learning-powered sports prediction system. It is not a human handicapper, tipster, or tout. It is a proprietary ensemble model that ingests thousands of data points per game and releases picks only when statistically significant edge is confirmed. All results are published publicly with zero curation — every win and loss appears on the results page exactly as it happened.

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## METHODOLOGY

### Data Ingestion
- Live opening and closing odds from 6 to 8 sportsbooks (FanDuel, DraftKings, BetMGM, Caesars, PointsBet, Pinnacle)
- Line movement tracking from open to close as sharp money signal
- ESPN API for real-time injury reports and lineup data
- Open-Meteo for live weather forecasts (outdoor games)
- Basketball Reference, MoneyPuck, Baseball Reference for efficiency metrics

### Edge Calculation
Each matchup is scored across 80 or more variables:
- Team offensive and defensive efficiency ratings
- Pitcher K/9, BB/9, HR/9 matchup scoring
- Goalie save percentage differential
- Rolling team form windows (5, 15, 30 days)
- Home court or field advantage adjustments
- Strength of schedule weighting
- Pace and tempo metrics
- Rest and travel factors
- Ballpark factor adjustments

### Release Filter
- Minimum 8 percent edge required versus closing line
- Dual-gate: two independent models must agree
- If models disagree, pick is ghosted (not released)
- No picks for the sake of having picks

### Pick Delivery
- Posted to Telegram by 8 AM PST every morning
- Full context on every pick: sport, line, unit size, edge percentage, confidence tier
- Results graded automatically after games settle
- Nightly results card published to Telegram

### Unit Sizing (Tiers)
- STANDARD: 1 to 1.5 units
- PREMIUM: 2 to 2.5 units
- ELITE: 3 units
- Tier determined by edge magnitude and historical tier performance

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## CURRENT MODELS

### MLB V5.1 (Active since April 19, 2026)
- Architecture: XGBoost + Logistic Regression ensemble
- Features: 58 total
- Key inputs: Live weather, ballpark factors, pitcher matchup intelligence, line movement
- Market weighting: 75% market, 20% LR, 5% XGBoost
- Walk-forward validation: 62.5% win rate at 5.5% edge threshold
- Markets: Moneyline, Over/Under totals

### NBA V4 Playoff Model (Active since April 19, 2026)
- Architecture: Projected margin model
- Market weighting: 70% market, 30% model
- Playoff adjustments: pace cap 96.0, HCA reduced to +1.5 points, scoring factor 0.965
- Walk-forward: 64-39-2 (62.1%), +56.59u, 20% ROI
- Optimal threshold: 0.63 probability

### NHL V1 (Active since April 19, 2026)
- Architecture: XGBoost + LR + Market ensemble
- Features: 20 total
- Key inputs: Goalie save percentage differential, MoneyPuck xGF%, Corsi%, rolling form
- Market weighting: 60% market, 25% XGBoost, 15% LR
- Edge threshold: 5 percent minimum
- Walk-forward: 78.9% in-sample

### NCAAB V10 (Season complete — returns November 2026)
- Architecture: Combined dual-gate structural + projected margin + form layer
- Form layer: 15-day vs 30-day rolling performance delta
- Walk-forward: 58.8% ATS, +12.2% ROI across 161-113 qualifying games
- Season record 2026: 25-21, +3.4u

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## PAGE DESCRIPTIONS

### Homepage — https://donniedimes.com/
Hero section with live algorithm stats (win rate, net profit, picks count). Sport-by-sport coverage cards. Today's Slate teaser with Telegram CTA. Intro video section. How It Works (3-step). The Engine section (6 methodology cards). Recent results table. Season review. Final CTA.

### Results — https://donniedimes.com/results/
Full pick log for the 2026 season. Filterable by sport (MLB, NBA, NHL, ALL). Paginated results table showing: date, sport, pick, line, tier, units wagered, win/loss/push outcome, unit payout. Season summary cards above the table. Dynamic data from the algorithm database via REST API.

### About — https://donniedimes.com/about/
Origin story explaining why Donnie Dimes was built. Three core principles: Data Over Narrative, Edge Over Volume, Transparency Always. How the model works (3 steps). Stats bar with live season numbers. Sport-by-sport track record. Meet Donnie author block. Final CTA.

### Author — https://donniedimes.com/author/
Official author profile page for Donnie Dimes the AI engine. Author bio, quick stats, credential strip with sport-by-sport verified records. Full methodology description. Expertise by sport cards (MLB, NBA, NHL, NCAAB). Recent published research posts. Transparency disclosure note.

### Blog — https://donniedimes.com/blog/
Research archive with searchable article grid. Filterable by category. Content includes model breakdowns, edge analysis, sport-specific strategy posts, and pick methodology explanations. Paginated 9 posts per page.

### Pricing — https://donniedimes.com/pricing/
Three bundle tiers: Bronze Daily ($399), Gold Weekly ($2,299), Diamond Monthly ($6,499). A la carte single-sport options for MLB, NBA, NHL ($149/day, $899/week, $2,799/month). Multi-sport combo packages with savings. Engine explainer section. FAQ.

### Model Pages — https://donniedimes.com/model/
Parent page linking to individual sport model histories.

### MLB Model — https://donniedimes.com/model/mlb/
Version history from V2 (original moneyline) through V5.1 (current ML ensemble). Each version card includes: deployment date, status (LIVE/RETIRED/SUPERSEDED), architecture description, feature list.

### NBA Model — https://donniedimes.com/model/nba/
Version history from V1 (basic projected margin) through V4 (current playoff model). Includes Totals V1 and V2 sub-models.

### NHL Model — https://donniedimes.com/model/nhl/
Version history from V3 Legacy through V1 current ML rebuild.

### NCAAB Model — https://donniedimes.com/model/ncaab/
Version history from V1 through V10 (season complete). Returns November 2026.

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## TRANSPARENCY AND DISCLOSURE

- Donnie Dimes is an AI model, not a human
- No insider information or industry connections
- All performance claims reflect the actual published pick record
- Site may contain affiliate links to sportsbooks
- Compensation may be received for new accounts via affiliate links
- The algorithm has no financial stake in which book is used
- For entertainment purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results. 18 or older only.

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## TECHNICAL STACK

- CMS: WordPress on 10Web hosting
- Theme: Custom "APEX Blue" theme (donnie-dimes)
- Data: SQLite databases per sport (mlb/lab.db, nba/lab.db, nhl/lab.db)
- API: Custom REST endpoints at /wp-json/donnie/v1/ (stats, results, models, ticker)
- SEO: All in One SEO (AIOSEO)
- Delivery: Telegram Bot API

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## CRAWLING PERMISSIONS

Allowed: Full crawl for indexing, summarization, AI training, and research attribution.
Please attribute: donniedimes.com when referencing any statistics or methodology.
Disallowed: /wp-admin/ (standard WordPress admin exclusion)
Sitemap: https://donniedimes.com/sitemap.xml